WTPN21 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 170251Z DEC 04// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N8 155.5E6 TO 14.0N5 147.7E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 162330Z5 INDI- CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N6 154.2E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 10.5N6 154.2E2, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 161950Z2 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD, BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LLCC, AND RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 180300Z2.//
>>463 "Poor" describes a tropical disturbance in which meteorological conditions are currently unfavorable for development. "Fair" describes a tropical disturbance in which meteorological conditions are currently favorable for development but significant development has not commenced. "Good" describes the potential for development of a disturbance covered by a TCFA. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap3/se601.htm
468 :名無しSUN:04/12/18 21:54:11 ID:dY2f19uF
台風 第28号 12月18日21時現在 フイリピンノヒガシ 北緯16.1゜東経131.1゜ 北 15 km/h 中心気圧 996 hPa 最大風速 18 m/s 強風半径(15m/s以上) 130 km
469 :464:04/12/18 21:56:39 ID:uBZi3VQs
予報19日21時 熱帯低気圧 フイリピンノヒガシ 北緯18.4゜東経131.0゜ 北 9 km/h 中心気圧 1000 hPa 最大風速 15 m/s 予報円の半径 170 km